Shippers currently retain the negotiating advantage, and a durable truckload recovery still depends on stronger goods demand. Until that turn arrives, carriers need to protect cash by tightening network design, capacity, pricing, and broker controls.
In 2019, carriers were warned that shippers were taking back rates and moving freight from direct relationships to brokers. The pandemic boom interrupted that cycle, but its effects faded. By the fourth year of the Great Freight Recession, the expected recovery had repeatedly moved further away while carriers continued consuming cash.
The COVID Windfall and the Easy-Money Mirage
Truckload carriers earned real profits during the pandemic. Contract rates rose through 2021, many fleets reduced debt, and long-haul capacity expanded sharply. The article describes long-haul capacity as effectively doubling during 2021.
The profits were real but temporary. High rates attracted tens of thousands of mostly one-truck entrants, leaving the industry with excess capacity when demand normalized.
Demand Is Choppy, Costs Are Sticky, and Pricing Power Is Thin
The market still had too many trucks for the freight available. Carrier costs were more than 30% above pre-COVID levels, while cabotage, Driver Inc., weak enforcement, and tariffs added pressure.
The article cites American Trucking Associations figures showing 11.27 billion tons of freight in 2024, down from 11.41 billion a year earlier. Industry revenue fell from $1.004 trillion to $906 billion.
DAT’s July national average spot van rate was $2.05 per mile including fuel surcharge. August softened after imports had been pulled into July because of tariff timing. Against those rates, FreightMarks showed dry-van carriers averaging $2.398 in total cost per mile.
Why Supply Cuts Alone Haven’t Delivered Relief
Carrier exits and fewer new entrants had not tightened supply enough to restore pricing power. Capacity utilization remained only marginally helpful, and Class 8 orders showed fleet caution.
Two structural issues prolonged the imbalance.
First, double brokering, identity fraud, ghost carriers, and reincarnated operations obscured the amount and cost of capacity actually serving the market. Regulatory proposals existed, but the cleanup was incomplete.
Second, inconsistent enforcement lowered the competitive floor. Rules such as English-language proficiency impose real training and operating costs on compliant carriers. When enforcement varies, those carriers compete against operators that avoid the same cost.
The Demand Side Will Decide the Turn
The pandemic expansion was caused by demand, and the next sustainable recovery will also require stronger goods movement. Tariffs can shift freight between months by causing importers to accelerate or delay shipments, but that does not necessarily increase total demand.
The article cites Michigan State University professor Jason Miller’s repeated point that the truckload cycle improves sustainably only when demand for goods strengthens.
Freight Network Engineering: Build Density and Kill Drift
Carriers cannot hold unused capacity indefinitely while waiting for recovery. The article recommends immediate network discipline.
- Draw the box and enforce it. Define the freight footprint and require approval for tourist lanes that pull equipment outside it.
- Stack freight the carrier controls. Develop repeat direct-shipper lanes that begin in home markets and finish inside the network. Incumbency can become more valuable when demand improves.
- Right-size to the footprint. Align tractors, trailers, and driver domiciles with the network. Park capacity that cannot remain in the box at a positive contribution.
- Price total cost. Establish the all-in linehaul, fuel recovery, and accessorial amount needed, then adapt it to the shipper’s surcharge method. Negotiate MPG, timing, audit rights, and data access when a lane-specific fuel program is used.
- Benchmark continuously. Compare operating ratio, cost per mile, utilization, and maintenance with peers to locate structural weaknesses.
Broker Management: Centralize Control and Raise the Bar
Brokered freight should fill gaps; it should not determine where the carrier operates.
The article recommends:
- Assigning one leader with authority over broker-load acceptance, training, and rules of engagement.
- Accepting broker freight only when it begins or ends within the footprint or shortens the return to a core market.
- Requiring current market-rate checks before every bid.
- Recording date, broker, miles, offer, negotiated rate, deadhead, margin, and result for each opportunity.
- Scoring brokers from A through D based on payment, claims, detention response, network fit, and fraud indicators.
Weekly review of the load ledger can reveal patterns, training issues, and points where the carrier’s process is weak.
Bottom Line
The downturn will not end merely because capacity shrinks. It will turn when households and businesses demand more goods that move by truck.
Until then, survival depends on dense freight networks, disciplined all-in pricing, professional broker management, and refusal to move freight at a loss. Carriers that establish those controls during the downturn should enter the next cycle with healthier lanes, stronger partners, and a cost base they understand.